# In What Sense is P(A|B) P(B) = P(A,B)? The Relationship between Distributional Format and Subjective Probability Estimates

- Belinda Bruza,
*University of Adelaide*
- Matthew Welsh,
*University of Adelaide*
- Daniel Navarro,
*University of Adelaide*
- Stephen Begg,
*University of Adelaide*

## Abstract

The elicitation of uncertainty is a topic of interest in a range
of disciplines. The conversion of expert beliefs into probability distributions
can play a role in assisting key decisions in industry. However, elicitation
methods can be prone to bias. In this paper we investigate the effect of changing
the presentation of stimulus information and question format on elicited
judgments of marginal, conditional and joint probabilities. Participants taught a
probability distribution in one structure were expected to have difficulty
assessing the distribution in another structure. While this pattern was not
found, it turned out that training participants on the more difficult task
(learning from a conditional structure) improved overall performance.

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