Judgment under uncertainty is not always certainty-oriented


Previous research of uncertainty has assumed that people’s single time- preference for alternatives is based on the degree of availability in probability. We, however, suggest that the influence of probability decreases when a global strategy includes multiple selections with a single goal. A game, which involves a tournament of 8 teams, is introduced to the participants and they were asked to select 4 teams so that their selection includes the winner. Participants’ choice responses were classified into 2 types. The first type is to pick all the 4 teams on one side of the bracket (a sure 50% to win) making the degree of uncertainty minimized. The second type includes all other ways of selection, except the first type, with greater uncertainty. The results indicate that only 37% chose the former strategy indicating that the majority of people used a strategy with higher uncertainty.

Back to Table of Contents