# Some Probability Judgments may Rely on Complexity Assessments

- Antoine Saillenfest,
*Telecom ParisTech, Paris, France*
- Jean-Louis Dessalles,
*Telecom ParisTech, Paris, France*

## Abstract

Human beings do assess probabilities. Their judgments are however
sometimes at odds with probability theory. One possibility is that human
cognition is imperfect or flawed in the probability domain, showing biases and
errors. Another possibility, that we explore here, is that human probability
judgments do not rely on a weak version of probability calculus, but rather on
complexity computations. This hypothesis is worth exploring, not only because it
predicts some of the probability ‘biases’, but also because it
explains human judgments of uncertainty in cases where probability calculus
cannot be applied. We designed such a case in which the use of complexity when
judging uncertainty is almost transparent.

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