Dynamics of Strategy Adaptation in a Temporally Extended Monty Hall Dilemma


We present the results of two temporally extended experimental implementations of the Monty Hall dilemma in order to examine the dynamics of belief. In the first experiment, we used the standard three-door version of the dilemma, but biased the probability of the winning door positionally. Participants capitalized on the increased probabilities but did not discover the optimal switch strategy. In the second experiment, we increased the number of doors, in each case removing all but two doors. As the number of doors increased, participants converged on the optimal switch strategy, as well as increasing their confidence in their strategy. This suggests that the information relevant to the MHD is not win frequencies but how the different elements of the dilemma are related.

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