Whole Number Bias in Children's Probability Judgments

AbstractSimple probability judgments pervade human experience. Decades of research have revealed a pattern of heuristic errors in simple random draw predictions of both children and adults. Participants often make their choice based on the magnitude of the target or the non-target set without relating the two quantities. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that this bias is robust in both timed and untimed tasks (Experiment 1) and may be overcome when the child is given the adequate amount and type of feedback (Experiment 2).

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