Shift of probability weighting by joint and separate evaluations: Analyses of cognitive processes based on behavioral experiment and cognitive modeling

AbstractWe examined whether probability weighting in decisions made under risk changed depending on the difference in evaluation methods. In particular, we focused on two methods, joint evaluation (JE) and separate evaluation (SE). We conducted a behavioral experiment and found that participants put more probability weight on small probability when using the SE method than when using JE, and that for large probabilities, the inverse was observed (i.e., participants put more weight in JE). We analyzed these results using a cognitive model and found that participants’ subjective value of money does not change owing to differences in evaluation methods. However, beliefs concerning uncertain events shifted depending on evaluation methods, which led to the differences in probability weight. In this paper, we also discuss psychological mechanisms that produce different judgments or evaluations between SE and JE.

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