Do You Need More than Two Subjects: Using Cognitive Modeling to Make Accurate Predictions for Individual Subjects

AbstractIn experimental research, large numbers of participants are used to average out individual differences in the data. However, differences in task performance may be largely due to two factors; lack of task training, and different micro-strategies. We implement a methodology that removes the effect of these factors, requires only 2–3 participants, and still produces large amounts of data. Other studies have been published using a similar methodology (Cousineau & Shiffrin, 2004; Gray & Boehm-Davis, 2000). Our study is a revision of previous research using a mobile game (West et al., 2018). Participants are trained extensively on the game to ensure they are experts. The study includes a predictive cognitive model and the game-design is based on an apparent micro-strategy. We hypothesize that the same micro-strategies under identical conditions, should produce identical results across participants and the model. Suggesting the model may exist in the mind of human experts.

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